Conservative, Industry-Validated Projections
Based on actual competitor timelines: Onfleet, OptimoRoute, Routific, Urbantz
Philosophy: This model uses conservative, industry-validated projections. We've studied actual competitor timelines (Onfleet took 3+ years to reach 500 customers) and applied realistic assumptions for a founder-led, bootstrapped-to-seed B2B SaaS startup.
Conservative Growth: Year 1 is validation, not scale
Founder-Led Sales: No sales team until proven PMF
Long Sales Cycles: 60-90 days for B2B logistics
High Initial Churn: 15-25% as we find PMF
Lean Team: 3-5 people max Year 1
Bootstrap Mindset: Maximize runway, minimize burn
UK-Only Focus: London-first, then expansion
Realistic CAC: £2K-5K blended across segments
Important Context: Year 1 is about learning and validation, not hitting massive revenue. Our goal is to achieve 10-20 happy, paying customers who become case studies for the Seed round.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UK Logistics Market | £541.2B | 2024 ONS data |
| London Market (25%) | £135.3B | Our Year 1-2 focus |
| UK Logistics Tech Spend | £2.7B | 0.5% of total market |
| Route Optimization TAM | £540M | 20% of tech spend |
| OmnioIQ 3-Year Target | £2.0M ARR | 0.37% market share |
Even at this modest share, we build a £2M ARR business
Currently raising
Use of Funds:
Product Development: £30,000 (40%)
MVP completion, API development, infrastructure
Go-to-Market: £18,750 (25%)
Website, content, initial marketing, sales tools
Operations: £11,250 (15%)
Legal, accounting, SEIS, tools/SaaS subscriptions
Founder Salary: £11,250 (15%)
Minimal living expenses (6-9 months)
Reserve: £3,750 (5%)
Contingency for unexpected costs
Runway: 12-18 months to Seed metrics
Target: Month 12-15
Metrics Required at Raise:
Likely Valuation:
Pre-money: £2.0M-£3.0M
Post-money: £2.5M-£3.75M
Dilution: ~20-25%
Goal: 24-month runway to Series A metrics
Target: Month 30-36 (End of Year 3)
| Metric | Target | Industry Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| ARR | £1.5M-£2.5M | Typical: £1M-£3M |
| Customers | 100-150 | Varies by ARPU |
| YoY Growth | 100%+ | Minimum 100% |
| Gross Margin | 85%+ | Typical: 75-85% |
| Net Revenue Retention | 105%+ | Good: 100-110% |
| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | Churn | MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0% | £0-£150 | £0-£1.8K |
| M4-6 | 1-2/month | 3-5 | 10% | £450-£750 | £5.4K-£9K |
| M7-9 | 1-2/month | 6-10 | 15% | £1K-£1.5K | £12K-£18K |
| M10-12 | 2-3/month | 10-20 | 15% | £3K-£7K | £36K-£84K |
| Year 1 End | 10-20 total | 10-20 | 20% avg | £4.2K-£10K | £50K-£120K |
| Category | Monthly | Annual | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder Salary (minimal) | £1,250 | £15,000 | 18% |
| Contractor/Part-time Dev | £2,500 | £30,000 | 36% |
| Infrastructure (AWS, etc) | £500 | £6,000 | 7% |
| SaaS Tools & Software | £300 | £3,600 | 4% |
| Marketing & Sales | £1,500 | £18,000 | 22% |
| Legal, Accounting, Admin | £700 | £8,400 | 10% |
| Office/Coworking | £250 | £3,000 | 4% |
| TOTAL BURN | £7,000 | £84,000 | 100% |
Year 1 P&L: Revenue £85K | Expenses £84K | Net: ~Break-even
Note: This assumes £75K F&F round covers initial expenses. Cash runway: 12-18 months.
Customer Metrics:
Product/Market Signals:
| Quarter | New Customers | Total Customers | Churn | MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 10-15 | 30-35 | 12% | £15K-£18K | £180K-£216K |
| Q2 | 15-20 | 45-55 | 10% | £22K-£28K | £264K-£336K |
| Q3 | 20-25 | 65-80 | 10% | £32K-£42K | £384K-£504K |
| Q4 | 20-25 | 85-105 | 8% | £42K-£58K | £504K-£696K |
| Year 2 End | 65-85 new | 85-105 | 10% avg | £44K-£58K | £525K-£700K |
Seed funding enables professional team
| Role | Headcount | Timing | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder/CEO | 1 | Full-time now | £60,000 |
| Full-Stack Developer | 2 | Q1 | £140,000 |
| Sales/Customer Success | 1 | Q2 | £50,000 + commission |
| Product/Design | 1 | Q3 | £65,000 |
| Marketing Lead | 1 | Q4 | £55,000 |
| TOTAL | 6 | - | £370,000 |
Total Year 2 Burn: ~£550K (team + ops + marketing)
Year 2 Revenue: £525K-£700K
Net Cash Flow: Break-even to slightly positive with Seed funding
| Quarter | New Customers | Total Customers | Churn | MRR | ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 25-30 | 110-135 | 8% | £68K-£90K | £816K-£1.08M |
| Q2 | 25-30 | 135-165 | 7% | £88K-£115K | £1.06M-£1.38M |
| Q3 | 30-35 | 165-200 | 7% | £110K-£145K | £1.32M-£1.74M |
| Q4 | 30-35 | 195-235 | 6% | £135K-£175K | £1.62M-£2.10M |
| Year 3 End | 110-130 new | 195-235 | 7% avg | £135K-£175K | £1.6M-£2.1M |
With 195-235 customers, strong retention, and clear growth trajectory
70% of customers
35% of revenue
ARPU: £150-£300/mo
CAC: £500-£1,000
LTV: £5.4K-£10.8K
LTV:CAC: 5.4-10.8x
1-5 drivers, £149-£499/mo plans
25% of customers
45% of revenue
ARPU: £800-£1,500/mo
CAC: £2,000-£3,000
LTV: £28.8K-£54K
LTV:CAC: 9.6-18x
5-20 drivers, custom features
5% of customers
20% of revenue
ARPU: £2,500-£5,000/mo
CAC: £8,000-£15,000
LTV: £90K-£180K
LTV:CAC: 6-12x
20+ drivers, white-label, API access
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg ARPU (monthly) | £470 | £525 | £675 |
| Blended CAC | £2,500 | £2,200 | £2,000 |
| Avg Customer LTV (36mo) | £16,920 | £18,900 | £24,300 |
| Gross Margin | 82% | 86% | 89% |
| LTV:CAC Ratio | 6.8x | 8.6x | 12.2x |
| CAC Payback (months) | 14 | 11 | 8 |
Healthy Economics: LTV:CAC > 3x is good, we're targeting 6-12x across segments
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Customers | 10-20 | 85-105 | 195-235 | 350% |
| ARR | £50K-£120K | £525K-£700K | £1.6M-£2.1M | 262% |
| MRR (End) | £4K-£10K | £44K-£58K | £135K-£175K | 356% |
| Revenue (Actual) | £25K-£85K | £350K-£650K | £1.0M-£1.8M | 247% |
| Gross Margin | 82% | 86% | 89% | - |
| Team Size | 2-3 | 6-8 | 12-15 | - |
| Monthly Burn | £7K | £45K | £100K | - |
| Cumulative Funding | £75K | £625K | £3.1M | - |
10-20 customers is realistic for founder-led sales in a new B2B SaaS market. Onfleet took 3+ years to reach 500 customers.
With £525K-£700K ARR and 85-105 customers, we demonstrate clear PMF and are ready to scale with professional team.
At £1.6M-£2.1M ARR with 195-235 customers and strong retention, we're Series A ready with clear path to £10M+ ARR.
1. Sales Cycles Longer Than Expected
B2B logistics can take 90-180 days
2. Higher Churn in Year 1
Finding PMF means some customers won't stick
3. CAC Higher Than Projected
May need more spend to acquire customers
4. Seed Round Timing
Market conditions affect fundraising
Focus on shorter sales cycles first
Target SMBs with 30-60 day cycles initially
Budget for 20-25% Year 1 churn
Already factored into model
Multi-channel acquisition
Content, partnerships, outbound, inbound
18-month runway from F&F
Buffer time to hit Seed metrics
Our projections are grounded in actual competitor timelines and validated by industry benchmarks
Competitors like Onfleet, OptimoRoute, and Routific have validated the market with successful exits and substantial revenue.
£75K F&F → PMF validation → £600K Seed → strong unit economics → Series A readiness by Year 3.
Every assumption challenged against real competitor data. Better to exceed modest targets than miss ambitious ones.
Ground Floor Opportunity: Pre-revenue valuation with immediate execution
Massive Market: £540M UK TAM with proven willingness to pay
Strong Unit Economics: 6-12x LTV:CAC across all segments
Defensible Moat: Network effects and Fair Distribution System™
Capital Efficient: £75K to PMF, £600K to Series A metrics
Experienced Team: Deep logistics and SaaS expertise